Sunday, November 7, 2010
What a quote!!
Thursday, November 4, 2010
4th in a row!!
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Loneliness again!!
Friday, August 27, 2010
Incption, Keynes and the stock markets
"Keynes described the action of rational agents in a market using an analogy based on a fictional newspaper contest, in which entrants are asked to choose a set of six faces from photographs of women that are the "most beautiful". Those who picked the most popular face are then eligible for a prize.
A naïve strategy would be to choose the six faces that, in the opinion of the entrant, are the most beautiful. A more sophisticated contest entrant, wishing to maximize the chances of winning a prize, would think about what the majority perception of beauty is, and then make a selection based on some inference from their knowledge of public perceptions. This can be carried one step further to take into account the fact that other entrants would each have their own opinion of what public perceptions are. Thus the strategy can be extended to the next order, and the next, and so on, at each level attempting to predict the eventual outcome of the process based on the reasoning of other rational agents.
“It is not a case of choosing those [faces] that, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those that average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.” (Keynes, General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 1936).
Keynes believed that similar behavior was at work within the stock market. This would have people pricing shares not based on what they think their fundamental value is, but rather on what they think everyone else thinks their value is, or what everybody else would predict the average assessment of value is."
Friday, July 9, 2010
...
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Loneliness..
Well I don't know for sure but I think I have felt lonely recently. And,, I know the trigger or rather the reason behind it. But knowing, sometimes, is not enough. What a strange emotion it is; loneliness.. As much as I tell myself and as much as I run away from it
Monday, April 26, 2010
Nights like this..
Friday, April 16, 2010
Another Incomplete..
- I love reading what others write. It is just so much fun to read some of the things that some of my friends write.. It has its own charm and is so different from whatever is written by the PROs. And then I can't write so well which makes me feel so incapacitated sometimes
- Despite feeling that I cant write (as mentioned) there is something within me which does not want to accept that and which sometimes sincerely believes that may be its not so bad
- Even though I share what I write with many people, the praise from some of the closest friends who are forced to read it is sufficient to keep the narcissist in me happy
- It is genuinely nice to revisit some of my thoughts at a later day. Writing has this magic of storing memories in such an honest manner. (not being able to put some thoughts to words here)]